就是说这个概率是在没有任何约束之下的。比如说扔骰子，扔到2的概率是1/6 这就是无条件概率。但如果我增加一个条件为扔到偶数且扔到2的概率，那就只有1/3了

在债券的定价公式总，收益率是在分母的位置，所以收益上升的时候债券价格下降。

证券公司的投资部通常是在总部设立。

是指从历史数据的挖掘中找出一种模式（例如两组数据的正相关），但这种模式可能只是巧合并不存在逻辑关系，这时就会出现数据挖掘偏差。

或者 用于挖掘的数据库和用来检验预测的数据库是同一个数据库，因为一个好的数据预测是挖掘A数据库来预测B数据库。

高估实际值

Substitution bias : As the price of one good or service rises, people may substitute it with other goods or services that have a lower price. This substitution will result in an upward bias in the measured inflation rate based on a Laspeyres index.

Quality bias : As the quality of the same product improves over time, it satisfies people’s needs and wants better. One such example is the quality of cars. Over the years, the prices of cars have been rising but the safety and reliability of cars have also been enhanced. If not adjusted for quality, the measured inflation rate will experience another upward bias .

New product bias : New products are frequently introduced and a fixed basket of goods and services will not include them. In general, this situation again creates an upward bias in the inflation rate.

对于业绩陈述而言需要披露完整业绩。

资产=所有者权益+负债